2026 NBA Playoffs: Conference Finals Predictions
While it didn’t live up to the chaos of the opening round, the Conference Semi-Finals still provided the quality of basketball we were looking for. Oklahoma City continued to dominate, San Antonio had their first true postseason test, New York took over Philly, and a Game 7 between Detroit and Cleveland. As we all know Game 7 is the best phrase in all of sports, so we can’t go wrong there. We learned a ton about all four conference finalists and have plenty of storylines to follow going into the Conference Finals. Now let’s see how we’ve faired through 2 rounds and get into our Conference Finals preview and predictions:
Round 1: 5-3
Round 2: 2-2
Overall: 7-5
1 Perfect Prediction
Knicks vs. Cavaliers
New York Knicks
Playoff Recap
The Knicks have absolutely ran through the first two rounds of the NBA playoffs. After being tested early by the Raptors, the Knicks obliterated them after Game 3. OG Anunoby starred in this series and Karl Anthony-Towns was doing his best Jokic impression. Unfortunately for me, I overlooked all the signs of these flourishing Knicks and picked the 76ers in 7. That was a massive mistake. New York swept Philly which included wins in Games 1 and 4 by 30+ points. The shooting and defensive display put on by the Knicks in this series was truly impressive. This 76ers team was riding off the high of upsetting Boston in the opening round, but the Knicks punched them squarely in the face. New York left no doubt and are rightfully the favorites entering the Eastern Conference Finals.
X-Factor: Bench Scoring
I know I’m at risk of sounding like a broken record, but the X-Factor for this Knicks squad remains their bench scoring. Across the playoffs, the Knicks have struggled to find scoring from anyone outside of their starting five. That starting 5 is among the best in the league, the offense has gone stale when Brunson or KAT has an off night. So getting players six through nine going is vital as the competition gets tougher. Even though he started in the absence of OG Anunoby, I think Deuce McBride deserves a shoutout for his 25 point outburst in the final game of the series. This didn’t qualify as bench points, but the people of New York are hoping this performance leads to some confidence in McBride. If he can keep his hot shooting going and Jordan Clarkson can spearhead a scoring stretch or two, this Knicks team becomes even harder to beat.
Playoff Leaders
Points: Jalen Brunson (27.4 PPG)
Rebounds: Karl Antony-Towns (10.0 RPG)
Assists: Karl Anthony-Towns (6.6 APG)
Blocks: Karl Anthony-Towns (1.5 BPG)
Steals: OG Anunoby (1.9 SPG)
Cleveland Cavaliers
Playoff Recap
The Cleveland Cavaliers won a Game 7 in each of their first two playoff series. Admittedly, it can be said that Cleveland had a pair of uninspiring performances in those series. Against Toronto they won the first two games pretty handily, yet still allowed the series to go seven games. They followed this up against the Pistons by looking like two completely different teams dependent on the game. However, the NBA is a survive and advance league. It doesn’t matter how it looks, all you need to do is get the job done in crunch time. Cleveland had big games from all five of their starters throughout the playoffs and especially as they knocked out the first seeded Detroit Pistons. Donovan Mitchell led the ways but they do not win these series without the play of Jarrett Allen (Mr. Game 7), Evan Mobley, James Harden, or Max Strus. Even though they didn’t always look great, the Cavaliers find themselves just four wins away from the NBA Finals.
X-Factor: Max Strus
I don’t know if I’ve always been a Max Strus fan, but I sure am now. If Strus has a million fans then I’m one of them. If he has one fan, it’s me. And if he has zero fans, then I am dead. He is a great shooter, which was showcased by multiple games in double figures throughout the first two rounds. Even with these great performances, I believe his greatest value cannot be measured by statistics. Max Strus took charges, picked up Cade Cunningham full court at times, and always made the right play on offense. He will be so important heading into this series against the Knicks on both ends of the court. I obviously don’t know what the Cleveland gameplan will be in the ECF but things will be difficult for Strus regardless of the matchup. I will not be surprised for a second if he sways a game for the underdog Cavaliers.
Playoff Leaders
Points: Donovan Mitchell (25.6 PPG)
Rebounds: Evan Mobley (7.7 RPG)
Assists: James Harden (6.1 APG)
Blocks: Jarrett Allen (1.9 BPG)
Steals: James Harden (2.0 SPG)
Before I make this prediction, I went 0-2 in my Eastern Conference prediction in Round 2. So please, take this all with a grain of salt. One interesting storyline is that there is no clear cut best player in this series. Both Jalen Brunson and Donovan Mitchell have solid arguments that will have to be settled on the court. The Knicks will come in as favorites following their sweep of Philadelphia. The health of OG Anunoby will be key but I continue to think the bench scoring will be the most pivotal piece. If McBride, Robinson, or Clarkson can swing a game that will only favor the Knicks. It could be said the performance of James Harden is an X-Factor for Cleveland, but Harden has been around since 2009. We know he will make the series altering plays but also know he can’t be relied on to win a series on his own. Max Strus will help set the tone for the Cavs and also has the ability to steal a game for his team with key plays late. While I love Max Strus and think Donovan Mitchell will play All-NBA caliber basketball for a game or two, I think the Knicks will win. Jalen Brunson is a proven playoff performer, KAT is playing great basketball, and Bridges, Anunoby, and Hart will make life nearly impossible for the scorers on Cleveland. If this series goes seven games, advantage Cleveland Cavaliers. Unfortunately for them, I think the Knicks seal it before then and make their first NBA Finals appearance since 1999.
Prediction: Knicks in 6
Thunder vs. Spurs
Oklahoma City Thunder
Playoff Recap
If anyone was hoping the Thunder would get tested in their attempt to repeat as champions, that has not been the case. Oklahoma City has swept both the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers to start of their title defense. Admittedly, beating up on the Suns and Luka-less Lakers is not an astounding feat. To further prove this point, all but two of these games were won by a double digit point margin. However, this is exactly how the Thunder wanted to start off this playoff run. With Jalen Williams only playing in two of the first eight games, the emergence of Ajay Mitchell has been incredible for the Thunder’s continued success. Mitchell had a vastly improved regular season, but has averaged around 19 points, 5 assists and a steal in the playoffs. The Thunder will look to force turnovers and continue their balanced offensive attack. As we’ve seen through the past two playoffs, OKC identity is found in being aggressive on both ends of the floor.
X-Factor: Jalen Williams/ Ajay Mitchell
The Thunder will need either Jalen Williams to return fully healthy or for Ajay Mitchell to continue his breakout position. Ideally both would happen, if you’re a Thunder fan, but let’s not be too greedy here. One slight hiccup that occurred during their eight-game winning streak is that teams will look to frustrate MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Lakers showcased this by sending consistent double teams SGA’s way and causing lower outputs during a couple games during that series. The Thunder can’t stop teams from double teaming their stars, but having his supporting cast play well makes those double teams riskier endeavors. If Williams and Mitchell can be true second options, the Thunder will consistently be able to punish any incoming double teams.
Playoff Leaders
Points: Shai Gilegeous- Alexander (29.1 PPG)
Rebounds: Chet Holmgren (9.1 RPG)
Assists: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (7.1 APG)
Blocks: Chet Holmgren (1.8 BPG)
Steals: Cason Wallace (1.8 SPG)
San Antonio Spurs
Playoff Recap
San Antonio quickly answered lingering question regarding how the young team would adjust to playoff intensity. After beating the frisky Portland Trail Blazers via a gentleman’s sweep, the Spurs found themselves against a more experienced Timberwolves roster. Wemby and company quickly found themselves in a 0-1 hole after Minnesota stole the opening game in San Antonio. They followed up that performance by winning four of the final 5 games, with all but one of those four wins being competitive. The entire league knows about the elite defense played by the Spurs, but their offense came up huge down the stretch in the second round. Several players had massive outburst with the most notables being Wemby’s 39 point Game 3, Stephon Castle’s 32 point Game 6, and Dylan Harper’s 24 point Game 4 coming off the bench. The young Spurs are facing their toughest challenge yet against the defending champions.
X-Factor: Victor Wembanyama’s Offense
I know it sounds obvious to say an X-Factor is the offense of that team’s best player. However, when Victor Wembanyama is cooking offensively, it takes the Spurs to an entirely new level. He is averaging over 4 blocks per game, so everyone knows what kind of impact that he has on that end of the court. That level is going to be consistent throughout his career, but his offensive performance is the difference between the Spurs being a good or a great team. Wemby is averaging 22.9 points in San Antonio victories and just 6.7 points in losses. Granted, he left early due to injury in two of those games. The point still remains the same. When he is knocking down jump shots and being an offensive force on the inside, the Spurs are a much more dangerous team. If Wembanyama can average 22 or more points, the Spurs will truly give the reigning champs a run for their money.
Playoff Leaders
Points: Victor Wembanyama (20.3 PPG)
Rebounds: Victor Wembanyama (10.7 RPG)
Assists: Stephon Castle (6.1 APG)
Blocks: Victor Wembanyama (4.1 BPG)
Steals: Julian Champagnie (1.5 SPG)
I believe we are about to witness the first of many future playoff battles between these iterations of the Thunder and Spurs. Neither young team has reached their peak, but are still two of the best teams in the league. Both teams represent an absolute nightmare for the rest of the league, but only one can move forward. The Thunder have an injury question mark in Williams and will need someone other than SGA to run their offense through. Thankfully for OKC, both Holmgren and Mitchell are up to that challenge. For the Spurs, it will be a new challenge for their young stars. Wembanyama, Castle, and Harper are the future and I’m intrigued to see how they fair in their biggest playoff challenge yet. De’Aron Fox will have the opportunity to alleviate stress on his younger teammates, but Wemby will be the one that truly needs to step up on offense. Chet Holmgren is one of the more capable matchups in defending him, so that battle will be pivotal. For anyone that watched their regular season battles, it’s easy to tell that there is a rivalry between these teams. I simply think this is a battle between the haves and have nots. The Thunder have been there while this is the first experience for the Spurs. This series will be very competitive but I think the Thunder get the edge.
Prediction: Thunder in 6