2026 NBA Playoff Final: Preview and Predictions
The NBA is giving us a matchup that we’re all excited for. In one corner, we have the New York Knicks who play in the biggest market and are looking to win their first NBA title in over 50 years. Their opponent, the San Antonio Spurs, have returned to prominence behind the league’s next great star, Victor Wembanyama. Neither team was the favorite in their respective conference but have proven their worth throughout the playoffs. As the Conference Finals ended, it became clear that these were the two best teams in the league. There are a few under the radar facts about this series that I think are pretty cool. First off, this is a rematch of the 1999 Finals and the last elite season for the New York Knicks. The second fact, and in my opinion least jarring, is that this is also a rematch of this year’s NBA Cup which was won by the Knicks. While it won’t have a major impact on the series, I do think Wemby is taking that loss personally. Finally, this will mark the 8th straight year with a new champion regardless of the outcome. This speaks to the parity of the league and the great place basketball is currently in.
Before we get started, let’s see how our predictions have gone so far. They have been unfortunately mediocre, but I’ll take staying above .500. Now let’s get into this incredible Finals matchup.
Round 1: 5-3
Round 2: 2-2
Conference Finals: 1-1
Overall: 8-6
1 Perfect Prediction
San Antonio Spurs vs. New York Knicks
San Antonio Spurs
Playoff Recap
The Spurs took a quick punch from Portland in their opening round series, before ending the series on a three-game winning streak. They faced their first true challenge of the Wembanyama era in the second round against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Anthony Edwards was hurt, but even still the Spurs proved without a doubt that they were the superior team. After winning in 6 games, it brought us to the showdown we were all hoping for. San Antonio faced off against the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder for the Western Conference crown. Many people, myself included, thought the Spurs would put up a fight but were simply a year too early. The Spurs quickly proved us wrong as the opening game went into 2OT before the Spurs pulled off the victory. I think this will be remembered forever as the game where Victor Wembanyama truly announced he had arrived. Wemby scored 41 points to go along with 24 rebounds in 3 blocks in the victory. This included a game tying, pull-up three pointer from 30 feet at the end of the first OT period. Wemby also had Chet Holmgren in an absolute blender, making him look like he wanted to be somewhere else for the entire series. While a lot of attention goes to Wembanyama, players like Castle, Fox, Harper, Champagnie, and Vassell all had pivotal moments throughout the 7-game series. The series itself was odd, because only Games 1 and 7 were down to the wire, with the other five games being less competitive. So many Spurs were incredible, but Harper (12 points, multiple big 4th quarter shots) and Champagnie (20 points) deserve their flowers for huge performances in Game 7. San Antonio led for a majority of the game and had answers for every OKC run. In my opinion, the Spurs were clearly the superior team and are entering this new era with intensity.
X-Factor: The Luke Kornet Minutes
One player I didn’t mention above is backup center Luke Kornet. The journeyman player was on the 2024 Boston Celtics team that won the Finals and brings a welcome, veteran presence to the young Spurs. Kornet had what was potentially the play of the series as he blocked a breakaway dunk attempt by the Thunder’s Isaiah Hartenstein during the fourth quarter of Game 7. The Thunder were looking to cut into the lead while Wemby was on the bench with 5 fouls. Kornet was up for the moment and made sure the momentum stayed with San Antonio. The stats won’t show it but just know Kornet’s block and 3 offensive rebounds were pivotal for the Spurs. Unfortunately that impact was not always the case. Kornet’s +/- for the series was a -38, which is not sustainable if the Spurs want to be NBA Champions. This section could have also been titled the non-Wemby minutes because that’s what this is. Kornet’s minutes have dropped due to the increase in Wembanyama’s minutes. The Spurs need Kornet to hold his own to allow Wembanyama to rest on the bench. I can’t believe we get to see more of the impact Kornet had in Games 6 and 7 against the Knicks. This is pivotal for San Antonio success so Wemby can catch his breath instead of being rushed back onto the court on shortened rest.
Playoff Leaders
Points: Victor Wembanyama (23.1 PPG)
Rebounds: Victor Wembanyama (10.8 RPG)
Assists: Stephon Castle (6.7 APG)
Blocks: Victor Wembanyama (3.5 BPG)
Steals: Devin Vassell (1.4 SPG)
New York Knicks
Playoff Recap
Somehow, the Knicks were tested the most in their opening round matchup against the Hawks. The Knicks found themselves down 2-1 to the Hawks with a premature exit on the horizon. Both these losses were only by one point a piece, but it still had fans questioning this Knicks roster and coaching staff. The roster heard these concerns and won the final three games of the series. Not only did they rattle off wins to close out the Hawks, but the Knicks have won 11 straight games during this playoff run. You’re reading that correctly. After closing out Atlanta, they swept both the Philadelphia 76ers and Cleveland Cavaliers. The highlight from these two series was Game 1 of the ECF against Cleveland. The Knicks found themselves down 22 points in the fourth quarter. Showcasing their resiliency, the Knicks rallied and forced the game into overtime. From there they never looked back and Cleveland never recovered. The catalyst throughout this playoff run, has of course been Jalen Brunson. He has come up with clutch bucket after clutch bucket and scored 28 during the Knicks comeback in ECF Game 1. While Brunson has been dynamic, so many other Knicks have stepped up. From Karl Anthony-Towns blossoming as a playmaker, to OG Anunoby looking like an elite wing, to Josh Hart’s streaky shooting, and so many other players, the Knicks have proven to have a versatile attack. A lot of people are taking the Eastern Conference for granted. The combination of versatility, resilience, and the clutch factor makes the New York Knicks a live dog as they search for their first title in 50 years.
X-Factor: 3 Point Shooting
This might be a captain obvious statement, because 3 point shooting is almost always an X-Factor. For New York, it’s even more important due to their hot shooting and opponent. The Knicks have been absolute flame throwers during this playoff run. Here are the playoff shooting percentages from starters or rotational players: Landry Shamet (60%), Karl Anthony-Towns (48.9%), OG Anunoby (48.3%), Miles McBride (42.9%), Jose Alvarado (40.9%), Jalen Brunson (35.2%), Mikal Bridges (34.1%), and Josh Hart (30.4%). Bridges and Hart have been streaky, but everyone else has been absolutely on fire for the Knicks. This shooting prevents teams from doubling Brunson and opens up the floor for everyone. The other side of that is their opponent, the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs love to play Wemby on non-shooters so he can help off and play help defense in the lane. For them, I’m sure they’re imagining putting Wembanyama on Hart or Bridges. That’s why their 3 point shooting is so imperative. We’ve seen games where Hart and Bridges are on heaters and other games where they can’t buy a bucket. Their shooting could very well be the difference between a Knicks win or a game where the reigning DPOY has 4 or more blocks.
Playoff Leaders
Points: Jalen Brunson (26.9 PPG)
Rebounds: Karl Antony-Towns (10.6 RPG)
Assists: Jalen Brunson (6.6 APG)
Blocks: Karl Anthony-Towns (1.4 BPG)
Steals: Josh Hart (1.8 SPG)
I truly believe this series can go either way. Each team is playing in their first NBA Finals in over a decade and will have a real opportunity to win the whole thing. The Spurs are at the beginning of what many people believe will be the NBA’s next great dynasty. San Antonio’s “Big 3” of Wembanyama, Castle, and Harper are all 22 or younger. Not only does that trio have a chance to dominate the NBA for years to come, but they also have barely scratched the surface of their potential. Despite this being their first playoff appearance, the young Spurs have not wilted under the pressure. The Spurs have a balanced offensive attack where 7 players can realistically score 20+ on any given night. Their true identity can be found on the defensive end of the floor. Led by Castle and Wembanyama, the Spurs are physical against opposing guards and Wemby is always lurking as a shot blocking threat. Their opponent in New York, also boasts a balanced offensive attack. Jalen Brunson is the head honcho, but Towns, Anunoby, and Bridges are all capable of leading the scoring charge. Defensively, Hart, Anunoby, and Bridges make life difficult for opposing players and are able to offset the potential of a poor shooting night. This team is versatile and Jalen Brunson is also arguably the most consistent scorer in the clutch. If any game goes down to the wire, I’m very intrigued to see if Wemby and Castle can continue their clutch shooting to match Brunson’s. I truly went back and forth here. One aspect that continued to pop in my mind was the rest vs. rust debate. The Knicks will be operating on a week and a half rest while the Spurs just went 7 games with the reigning champs. In the end, I think that aspect will be a wash. The Knicks have not faced a defense like San Antonio’s so far in the playoffs. I think they struggle to score offensively and the different options for San Antonio offensively are too much for New York to handle. Wemby truly announces himself to the world and guys like Champagnie, Vassell, and Harper pool together some big scoring outbursts.
Prediction: Spurs in 7
No matter how this series turns out, I’m confident we’re in for a good one. The impact of this series will likely echo throughout the rest of this decade. Outside of the fact that the NBA’s biggest market (New York) and future face of the league (Victor Wembanyama) are featured during this Finals, the basketball will be fantastic. The combination of high caliber offense and suffocating defense, will bring all basketball fans to the table. Also, Madison Square Garden hosting the Finals for the first time this century is going to be absolutely electric. With MSG rocking and the plethora of stars we have in this matchup, we are in for a great final two weeks as the 2026 NBA season comes to an end.