2026 NBA Playoffs: Conference Semi-Final Predictions
The opening round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs did not disappoint. After a bland opening weekend filled with some beatdowns, I thought we were in for an anticlimactic opening to the playoffs. However, the tides turned and we were treated to 3 game sevens, the Timberwolves and 76ers pulling off upsets, and multiple games that went down to the final possession. Some of the usual suspects came up big, while Ayo Dosunmu had a 43 point game, RJ Barrett hit a game winner, CJ McCollum and Luke Kennard momentarily looked like All-Stars, and Max Strus came up huge in game 7.
Before we look forward to the Conference Semi-Finals, let’s see how our predictions faired last round.
Round 1: 5-3
1 Perfect Prediction
Pistons vs. Cavaliers
Pistons Round 1 Recap
The Pistons surprisingly went the distance with the struggling Orlando Magic. I’m not entirely sure what happened, but Detroit seemed ill prepared to for the start of the series and found themselves in a 3-1 hole. Thankfully for the Pistons, they got going in the back half in the series. This was largely due to the play of young star Cade Cunningham. He averaged 32 points and 7 assists and was the driving force of a Detroit offense that struggled to get going at times. The other key player for the Pistons was Tobias Harris. Despite some well-documented playoff struggles, Harris averaged 21.6 for the series that included a 30 point outburst in game 7. Outside of those two, Detroit was wildly inconsistent on offense. Their defense was still elite, but they struggled to put up points. In order for this one seed to win another round, they’ll need more than just Cunningham and Harris to be consistent offensively.
Pistons X-Factor: Jalen Duren
Cavaliers Round 1 Recap
Similarly to their second round opponent, I was shocked it took the Cavaliers seven games to beat an undermanned Raptors squad. Cleveland won each of the first two games handily but then lost both games up north. In this series, the home team won every game. Unfortunately for the Cavaliers, they are the lower seed so will have to win on the road if they wish to move on. Despite winning the series, I found the performance by the Cleveland Cavaliers uninspiring. Their three stars, Mitchell, Harden, and Mobley left much to be desired and each had moments of glaring inefficiency. Don’t get me wrong, Cleveland doesn’t win without those three. Still I think the real keys to victory were Jarrett Allen and Max Strus. Similar to the rest of the Cavs, both players had volatile series. However, in game 7 when the series was in the balance, Allen and Strus came up huge. Allen was a menace on both ends while Strus made Scottie Barnes uncomfortable, took charges to halt Toronto’s momentum and came up with big baskets down the stretch. Cleveland’s stars will need to take after these two if they hope to continue moving on.
Cavaliers X-Factor: 3 Point Shooting
Both these teams were incredibly underwhelming in the opening round of the 2026 playoffs. Many expected this matchup but few thought both series would go seven games. Each team eventually got the job done, but will need to drastically step it up to move onto the Conference Finals. Cade Cunningham lived up to his billing as he returned from the collapsed lung, but the other young stars for Detroit struggled. A key factor for Detroit will be Jalen Duren. He looked like a completely different player than the one many were considering an All-NBA selection in the regular season. Against the Cleveland two-big lineup of Allen and Mobley, Duren will need to return to regular season form and be a wall on both ends of the court. For Cleveland, I think it will come down to their 3 Point %. The Cavs only shot 32.7% from deep in the opening round which led to a clogged offense. If they can shoot better, it will open up driving lanes for Mitchell and Harden and create a lot more flow. The recent flawed playoff history of the Cavs, makes me doubt this will happen. Detroit might not have much playoff experience, but they also lack the scars and playoff PTSD the veteran Cavaliers have. I expect many of these games to be close, but think the defensive prowess and improved offensive efficiency will be pillars that lead to a Pistons victory.
Prediction: Pistons in 6
Knicks vs. 76ers
Knicks Round 1 Recap
The Knicks won a highly competitive opening round series against the Atlanta Hawks. Yes, I said competitive and I know game six was an absolute beat down. Before any trolls come out, check the scores of the first three games. Those games were all up for grabs in the fourth quarter, with two of them being won by a single point. After game 3, however, the Knicks found their matchups advantages and rolled over the final three games of the series. Jalen Brunson spearheaded the New York offense like the previous postseasons, but it was Karl Anthony-Towns and O.G. Anunoby that really stood out to me. KAT got to the line and didn’t rely only on his outside shooting, which was a welcome change for New York fans. He also had two triple-doubles and was effective as a facilitator. Anunoby averaged 21 points and 9 rebounds for New York and was locked in on the defensive end of the court. This is exactly what the Knicks had in mind when they traded for him a few years ago. If Towns and Anunoby can continue their stellar play, New York may be the favorites to come out of the East.
Knicks X-Factor: Bench Scoring
76ers Round 1 Recap
In what was the biggest surprise of the opening round, the Philadelphia 76ers expelled their postseason demons from Boston. The 76ers were down 3-1 and then preceded to win the final three games of the series. Joel Embiid came back for game four, but really hit his stride over the final three games of the series. Philly was running their offense through the big man, who was tremendous in the fifth and seventh games of this matchup. Coming back just weeks after his appendectomy, Embiid left it all out there on the court. Tyrese Maxey came up clutch in game seven and was excellent as both a facilitator and scorer throughout the series. While Embiid and Maxey will get a lot of media attention, players like George, Oubre, Edgecombe, and Grimes were incredible on the defensive end. Those four made life miserable for Tatum and Brown and were one of the reasons that the Celtics could not get comfortable offensively later in the series.
76ers X-Factor: Joel Embiid’s Health
There might be some who think this matchup lacks prestige without the Boston Celtics, but there is no love lost between New York and Philly. For New York, it will come down to the getting more production from the bench. Especially with the struggles that Mikal Bridges has been having, the Knicks need the bench to provide a scoring boost. If Jordan Clarkson and Deuce McBride can provide a little spark, that will be enough to carry momentum while players like Brunson and KAT are on the bench. For Philadelphia, the health of Joel Embiid is vital if the Sixers hope to have a chance. He provides a dominant post presence and really opens up opportunity for the 76ers offense. Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, and Paul George have more than carried their own weights but the intensity will only pick up in the second round. One of the major differences between New York and Philadelphia is the continuity for the Knicks while the Sixers have barely had their core group together this season. Despite this, and partially my better judgement, I’m picking the 76ers. If Joel Embiid can stay healthy, I think the ceiling for this Philadelphia unit is higher. The floor for New York is higher, but we’re going to have a positive outlook here. I’m predicting that Embiid continues his domination of KAT and Tyrese Maxey takes the next step to true stardom.
Prediction: 76ers in 7
Thunder vs. Lakers
Thunder Round 1 Recap
I honestly don’t have much to say about the Oklahoma City Thunder. They swept Phoenix with relative ease to kick off their repeat campaign. While OKC dominated, all the attention goes to their star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Shai led the Thunder offense putting up 33.8 point and 8 assists per game. A lot of attention goes to his free throw attempts, but SGA can get it done from anywhere on the floor. It was not his most efficient series from beyond the arc, but he used his herky-jerky style to get to the rim and mid-range areas. The remaining Thunder core of Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren were solid as you’d expect. It was Ajay Mitchell that really stepped up for OKC. He started in game two with Jalen Williams absence, and averaged 15 points while shooting 45% from three. If Mitchell can provide a scoring spark off the bench moving forward, the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder just got that much scarier.
Thunder X-Factor: Forcing Turnovers
Laker Round 1 Recap
The Los Angeles Lakers won what was potentially the strangest of all the first round series. For Los Angeles, Austin Reaves missed a majority of the series and Luka Doncic still does not have a clear time table for a return. Their opponent, the Houston Rockets, had Kevin Durant only play in one game. With that being said, the Lakers won in six games and LeBron James had an all time performance in game 3. The 41 year-old LeBron had 29 points, 13 rebounds, 6 assists, and 3 steals. While that stat line itself was impressive, it was the moments that really stuck out. James poked the ball free from Reed Sheppard and shot the game tying three that forced the third game of the series into overtime. In overtime, LA came out on top and LeBron threw an alley-oop to his son. Houston struggled to score throughout this series, concluding in only being able to muster 78 points in the final game of the series. I don’t think the Lakers can take 100% credit for Houston’s offensive struggles, but their defensive effort is infinitely better than it was early in the season. Los Angeles will need that strong defensive effort and improved offensive efficiency if they want to upset OKC.
Lakers X-Factor: Austin Reaves
I expect this series to be competitive, but I would be a lot more confident in that idea of Luka Doncic was fully healthy. The latest update states Doncic will be out for the start of the series. Even if he is able to return later in the series, who knows how truly healthy he’ll be. What I do know is that LeBron will not let these Lakers be bullied. The Lakers had 6 players score 10+ points. They will need this to continue so Oklahoma City can’t send doubles or focus their defensive scheme solely around LeBron. While Marcus Smart, DeAndre Ayton, Luke Kennard, and Rui Hachimura will all need to come up big, the X-Factor for LA will be Austin Reaves. He returned for the final two games of the Rockets series and struggled largely with his offensive efficiency. The Lakers need him to return to his regular season form in order to add stress to the vaunted Thunder defense. For Oklahoma City that defense is exactly what I expect to control the direction of this series. Over the past two years, the Thunder have been incredible on both ends of the court. That was showcased this year by a Top 10 ranked offense and the first rated defense. I expect Dort, Wallace, and Caruso to pressure Los Angeles ball handlers and swing the turnover battle largely in favor of OKC. I don’t think the Lakers will be able to stop Shai and the potent Thunder offense. So it’ll come down to scoring enough points to keep up, which is unlikely without Luka. I think Oklahoma City cruises through as they look to repeat in 2026.
Prediction: Thunder in 5
Spurs vs. Timberwolves
Spurs Round 1 Recap
The San Antonio Spurs are heavy favorites after a gentlemen’s sweep against the Trail Blazers. After Portland tied up the series 1-1, there were a lot of questions regarding how the Spurs would adjust to playoff intensity. After that, all questions were answered and San Antonio proved without a doubt to be the superior team. Young stars like Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper proved the stage wasn’t too big for them, sparking San Antonio to win the final three games of the series. While their performances were noteworthy, nobody could outshine the performance of Victor Wembanyama. The Defensive Player of the Year showcased his defensive prowess blocking 4 shots per game. He was also no slouch offensively, which was really showcased in the opening game where he scored 35 points and completely took over in the fourth quarter. Wemby is using his first playoffs as a showcase and will look to continue doing so in the playoffs.
Spurs X- Factor: 3-Point Shooting
Timberwolves Round 1 Recap
After a relatively disappointing regular season, there were some questions regarding Minnesota entering their opening round series against the Nuggets. Identical to the performances we’d seen over the last two playoffs, the Timberwolves came to play once the postseason began. Unfortunately for Minnesota they lost Donte Divincenzo for the season and Anthony Edwards for a couple weeks in game 4. Despite those injuries, the remaining roster stepped up big. Ayo Dosunmu scored a whopping 43 points in the previously mentioned game 4 and Jaden McDaniels took a huge step forward in his continued development. Rudy Gobert also returned to “Stiffle Tower” form as he made the series miserable for Jokic and the Nuggets. It is currently unclear how long Edwards will be sidelines, but the supporting cast will need to step up if the Timberwolves hope to reach their third straight conference finals.
Timberwolves X-Factor: Edwards and Dosunmu Health
This is the series that I’m most excited for as we enter the second round. The competitiveness of this series may heavily rely on the health of Anthony Edwards for the Timberwolves. With that being said, this is a series of have vs. have nots. This is the first playoff run for this iteration of the San Antonio Spurs, while the Timberwolves have made the WCF two straight years. San Antonio will need veterans with playoff experience like De’Aaron Fox, Harrison Barnes, and Luke Kornet to provide leadership for some of the younger stars. In the opening round we saw a much improved three point shooting performance for San Antonio that really opened up their offense. For Minnesota, they need Ayo to be healthy and for Anthony Edwards to return as soon as possible to push the young Spurs. I love the Timberwolves roster, but it’s built around Anthony Edwards. Without him, it’ll be hard to match up with San Antonio. The health question marks for Minnesota is hard for me to look past. I expect one of McDaniels, Randle, or Dosunmu to steal a game or two but it’ll have to be early to add cushion as we potentially see a hobbled Ant-Man or wait for his return. This series will be a great test for both teams, but the defensive prowess and emerging stardom of Victor Wembanymama will carry the Spurs to a Conference Finals appearance.
Prediction: Spurs in 7