NFL Divisional Round Preview
We were absolutely blessed with a historic Wild Card Round. Of the 6 Wild Card games, 4 of them were absolutely incredible. I believe in all four games, the team that ended up losing had a lead at some point in the fourth quarter. I could go on and on about those games but those two games on Saturday were absolute perfection. First, the Rams were heavy favorites going into Carolina. The Panthers had something else in mind and took a lead late in the fourth quarter before Matthew Stafford stole their heart with a late comeback. Next the Bears-Packers game was one of the best games in recent playoff memory. Down both 21-3 at halftime and 27-16 at one point in the fourth quarter, the Bears managed to win 31-27. It would be ludicrous to expect the Divisional Round to match those high standards, but let’s hope some of that positive momentum gives us some great games this weekend. Now let’s see how we faired in the Wild Card Round and then move on to our previews and predictions.
Wild Card: 5-1
Bills @ Broncos
Why Bills Win:
Josh Allen comes up clutch in the 4th
Win the turnover battle
James Cook runs for 100+ yards
Why Broncos Win:
Sack Josh Allen 4+ times
Stop the Bills rushing attack
Establish RJ Harvey early to avoid being one dimensional
Key Matchups:
Bills OL vs. Broncos DL
Courtland Sutton vs. Christian Benford
James Cook vs. Alex Singleton
Preview:
I’m not saying anything new here but the AFC is about as wide open as it could possibly be. This is showcased by the #1 seeded Denver Broncos against the #6 seeded Buffalo Bills. For the visiting Bills, they won a nail-biter in Jacksonville during Round 1. Veteran Tre’Davious White game up with the game-sealing interception and Josh Allen played like the former MVP that he is. One worrisome stat is that the Bills failed to get James Cook going, as he only ran for 46 yards. Simply put, Cook has to become a priority for the Bills if they hope to continue moving on. The Bills running back is one of the most explosive in the NFL and has the ability to really open up passing lanes for Josh Allen. The importance of that cannot be understated as the defense for Buffalo has struggled this season. Creating turnovers will be huge to give Josh Allen a short field and force the Broncos off the field. I could be wrong but I don’t see a scenario where the the Bills blow out the Broncos. So I think if the Bills are to pull off a win in Denver, then Josh Allen will need to pull off some late game heroics.
For Denver, they have earned the right to host the Divisional Round at Mile High Stadium. The Broncos have truly built their identity on the defensive side of the football. The one aspect that might cause worry for Denver fans is there have been games where the defense looks pedestrian. They thrive at putting pressure on the quarterback. Most notably led by Nik Bonitto, they have 4 players with 7+ sacks. Their lockdown corner, Pat Surtain II, is truly one of the best in the NFL. Interestingly enough, this might not play as large of a part as the Bills don’t gave a true #1 receiver for Surtain to battle against. On offense, Sean Payton and the Broncos will need to be balanced and avoid any game altering turnovers. Bo Nix has paired great with the Payton offense, but is looking to take the next step and earn his 1st playoff win. Nix is a playmaker that extends plays and loves to hit deep shots down the field. If the pass rush can disrupt Allen and Nix can avoid turnovers, the Bronco’s will likely be on their way to hosting an AFC Championship matchup.
I have gone back and forth several times on this game. For the Buffalo Bills, getting Ed Oliver back is a huge boost for a struggling defense. Their defense came up with a few big plays down the stretch that will need to happen again if they hope to pull off another upset. Like I said, James Cook will be a huge difference maker and getting him going is a must for the Bills. If they can get Cook going and win the turnover battle, then I would trust Josh Allen to get the job done late. The Broncos will be favorites and have the home field advantage on Saturday. They will need the Broncos defense from early in the season to show up as opposed to the one that allowed 26 to the Commanders and 34 to the Jaguars. On offense, they need to prevent turnovers and have Bo Nix create a few chunk plays down the field. If Buffalo can get off to a quick start and get a solid game from Bo Nix, they’ll put themselves in a great position to win. After going back and forth, I think Buffalo pulls this one out. I predict this game to be close and I ultimately have more trust in Josh Allen to make the necessary clutch plays late.
Prediction: Buffalo 27 Broncos 23
49ers @ Seahawks
Why 49ers Win:
150+ yards for Christian McCaffrey
Force 2 or more turnovers from Sam Darnold
Keep Purdy’s jersey clean (2 or less sacks)
Why Seahawks Win:
8 + receptions from Jaxson Smith-Njigba
Hold 49ers under 20 points
Win turnover battle
Key Matchups:
49ers OL vs. Seahawks DL
Christian McCaffrey vs. Ernest Jones IV
Jaxson Smith-Njigba vs. Deommodore Lenoir/ Upton Stout
Preview:
Like we saw in Bears vs. Packers last week, we love seeing divisional rivalries in the playoffs. We get to see another one of these when the 49ers travel to the Seahawks in the Divisional Round. For San Francisco, they won their opening round game in Philadelphia. After tragically losing George Kittle to an Achilles injury, the 49ers rallied to knock off the defending Super Bowl Champions. A bunch of players stepped up but Jauan Jennings throwing a trick play touchdown to CMC was truly game breaking. Kyle Shanahan will come into this game with a few tricks up his sleeve and will need to get McCaffrey rolling early. Due to the many injuries San Francisco has suffered this season, players like McCaffrey and Jennings become even more valuable. On the other side of the ball, it’s no secret that the 49ers have struggled due to injury. I don’t believe they’ll be able to stop the Seattle defense, so forcing a couple turnovers will really swing how this game goes. In the end, it is important to remember one thing that has been proven over the past few weeks of action. The Purdy man cometh and the Purdy man taketh.
For Seattle, this is their first playoff matchup going up against a familiar foe. The Seahawks 14-3 is tied with the Broncos for the best in the NFL. Seattle got a big boost from Sam Darnold this offseason as the offense is starting to complement their elite defense. Darnold has continued to to turn around the trajectory of his career. His performance has been greatly complemented by their two running backs Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet. However, the true engine of their offense is Jaxson Smith-Njigba. JSN has broke out this season and led the NFL in receiving yards with 1,793. Every time Seattle needed a big play, Smith-Njigba found a way to get open. The other thing that has pushed this team along is their defense. That Seahawks unit has only allowed more than 20 points in 4 games this season. Simply put, this unit gets the job done at all 3 levels of the defense. Veterans Leonard Williams and Demarcus Lawrence put constant pressure on the quarterback and Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen make big time plays on the back end. To win on Saturday, Seattle will want to establish JSN early and hold the 49ers under 20 points.
These teams have played twice this season and split the series. Both games were low scoring affairs which could continue into this rounds matchup. I think this game will come down to who can more successfully get their star involved. For San Francisco that is obviously CMC and for Seattle it is JSN. Both defenses will gameplan to eliminate their opposition’s star, but that is easier said than done. Another key part will be the turnover battle. Due to the injury status of the 49ers defense and elite play of the Seahawks defense, the edge here goes to the home team. While Brock Purdy could definitely make some magic happen, I think the Seahawks will pull this one off. The best unit in this entire game is the Seattle defense and I trust their offense to put up enough points to get the win.
Prediction: Seahawks 23 49ers 14
Texans @ Patriots
Why Texans Win:
Get 4+ sacks on Drake Maye
No turnovers from CJ Stroud
Rush for 120+ yards
Why Patriots Win:
Texans struggle without Nico Collins
Keep Texans under 75 yards rushing yards
Get a couple 20+ yard rushes from Stevenson/Henderson
Key Matchups:
Will Campbell and Morgan Moses vs. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr.
Preview:
Nobody was predicting or looking forward to a Divisional Round matchup between the Texans and Patriots at the start of the season. The Texans were expected to be a playoff team but got off to an abysmal start this season. Thankfully for these Texans they have one of the best units in all of football. The Houston Texans defense is one of the best in the league and is truly elite enough to carry a team to a championship. Nearly every position get production and has elite talent. I would argue that Will Anderson Jr. Danielle Hunter, Derek Stingley Jr, Jalen Pitre, and probably a few others are among the best at their positions. Offensively, it has been a different story in Houston. they attempted to overhaul their offensive line without much success and struggle to run the football. Their best offense this season has been getting the ball to Nico Collins, who has unfortunately been ruled out for the game with a concussion. I give the Texans a lot of credit for their second half dismantling of the Steelers in the Wild Card Round. However, that performance by Stroud just won’t cut it on Sunday. This team needs to win the turnover battle and make Drake Maye consistently uncomfortable in order to win again.
Their opponent, the New England Patriots, enter this matchup after a low scoring battle against the Los Angeles Chargers. Drake Maye did not play his most impressive game but their defense came up huge making Justin Herbert’s life miserable. While the defense has a favorable matchup against a Collins-less Houston offense, Drake Maye and company will need to step their performance against one of the best defenses in the NFL. On the defensive side of the football, they need to stop the Texans rushing attack. The Patriots have been doing this all year and the Texans don’t have much of a rushing attack, so this may not be much of a challenge. If they can do this, it will force CJ Stroud to be a straight, drop back passer without his best weapon. Offensively, getting a few chunk plays, especially in the run game, could really open up the offense for New England. Doing this plus avoiding costly turnovers will put the Patriots in position to make the AFC Championship game.
In this game, I think the quality of the Texans defense cannot be overlooked. I do love the Patriots offense, but the Texans defense is the best unit in this game. Games have been wrecked by this pass rush and secondary all season long. Houston will need that performance to continue if they want their season to continue. The turnover battle will also play a huge part in this game, as both teams are coming off games where they committed more turnovers than they would have liked. New England will look to get out to an early start and capitalize on any mistakes made by the Texans. In the end, I think missing Nico Collins is huge and will really stagnate the Houston offense. I think Drake Maye plays better and makes enough plays to lead the Patriots to their first AFC Championship game since the Brady era.
Prediction: Patriots 20 Texas 10
Rams @ Bears
Coming Soon!