2025 NBA Finals Preview & Prediction
After an exhilarating regular season and three action-packed rounds of playoff basketball, we are down to two final teams. The Oklahoma City Thunder will be taking on the Indiana Pacers. As the first seed in the West, it’s no surprise to see the Thunder reach the Finals for the first time since 2012. Led by this year’s MVP, Oklahoma City showcases dominance on both ends of the court. It seems crazy to say that a team with the NBA’s leading scorer and MVP is more impressive on the defensive end, but I’d argue that is without a doubt the case in OKC. Their opponent, the Indiana Pacers, have been the surprise team of the playoffs. The Pacers play at a frenetic pace that causes issues for their competition. No matter how hard you try, Indiana speeds you up, which plays right into their hands. I am excited for this matchup in this culmination of the NBA season. Before we go any further into this matchup, here’s how Biasedly Unbiased has faired in our playoff predictions:
Playoff Record: 11-3
Round 1 (8-0)
Round 2 (2-2)
Conference Finals (1-1)
Perfect Predictions (Winner and # of Games): 5
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers
Oklahoma City Thunder
Thunder Playoff Recap
Nobody is surprised to see the Thunder in the Finals. OKC racked up 68 regular season wins and cruised in two out of their three preceding playoff matchups. Not much needs to be said about their First Round series against the Grizzlies. The Thunder swept a less talented Grizzlies team in a series that was never really in question. In the Second Round they faced off against Shai’s MVP competition in Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets. This ultimately became arguably the best series of the playoffs so far. Jokic presents matchup problems unlike anyone else in the association. His size and playmaking ability puts constant pressure on the opposition. The Thunder had games where players not named Shai Gilgeous-Alexander struggled to score. As Game 7 headed back to Oklahoma City, the legacy of this young Thunder squad was on the line. After a hard fought first quarter, they pulled away in a Game 7 blowout. While I’m sure Thunder fans would have preferred an easier series, a hard fought match up like this helps young teams mature. Ultimately, I think a series going down to the wire like this is the best thing that could have happened to them. As they moved onto the Timberwolves, this team was battle tested and ready to go. Despite the talent of the Timberwolves, the Thunder won this series without much issue in 5 games.
X-Factor: Forcing Turnovers
The super power for this Oklahoma City team is their ability to force turnovers. Even though Shai is an elite offense by himself, sometimes the other Thunder players struggle to produce. Most teams wouldn’t be able to win games when their offense struggles. Those teams don’t have Lu Dort and Alex Caruso locking down opposing players. You add in Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren anchoring down the middle and you have a world class defense. Also, don’t sleep on Cason Wallace as an elite defender. As Dort and Caruso age, Wallace is a candidate to step into that lock down position for the Thunder as this dynasty progresses. Is this Thunder defense this great simply because they have elite individual defenders? That answer is a resounding no. The individual defense is first class, but this team wins through team defensive effort. Every player wearing a Thunder uniform, whether you’re MVP Shai Gilegeous-Alexander or the last man off the bench, plays with winning effort on defense. This team thrives in help defense, jumps passing lanes, and swarms absent-minded players with the ball. Throughout this playoffs, players have tried to play isolation offense. This lackadaisical offense consistently leads to points the other way for Oklahoma City. I expect this to create many easy opportunities for the Thunder in this NBA Finals.
Playoff Stat Leaders
Points Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 29.8 PPG
Rebounds: Chet Holmgren 8.6 RPG
Assists: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 6.9 APG
Steals: Alex Caruso 1.8 SPG
Blocks: Chet Holmgren 2.0 BPG
Indiana Pacers
Playoff Recap
Indiana has done it again. A lot of people, myself included, doubted the Pacers even after their ECF run last season. They followed it up by doing the exact same thing this year. Except this year, they took it to the next step and made it to their first NBA Finals since 2000. In the First Round they handled a depleted Bucks team in five games without much difficulty. In the Second Round, they took on the first overall seed in the East. The Cleveland Cavaliers dominated the regular season, but ran into the waiting arms of Tyrese Haliburton and company. After stealing Game 1, it looked like Cleveland would even the series at 1-1. Then Haliburton took over, hitting a game winning shot. After that, the series was as good as over. Heading into the ECF against the Knicks, all the attention was on New York. Game 1 was in the world famous Madison Square Garden. The Knicks were up big but then Aaron Nesmith happened. He hit 6 three’s in the 4th quarter and brought the Pacers back from the brink of defeat. As they draw within two, the ball finds its way to none other than Tyrese Haliburton. He dribbles out and hits the game tying shot and the Pacers win in OT. My recap isn’t doing it justice, so please watch the 4th quarter highlights if you haven’t seen them. That game set the tone for Indiana to win in six and will always be known as “The Aaron Nesmith Game.” Indiana goes into this series as the underdogs yet again, but this team has proven they are not to be slept on.
X-Factor: Depth
The Pacers genuinely have 11-12 guys that I am confident in playing double digit minutes in this series. Compared to some other teams in the playoffs that struggled to go more than 7 deep, this is very impressive. There is no overstating just how important that is for Indiana. For a team that likes to play fast, having fresh bodies to throw out there is invaluable. This makes them less susceptible to foul trouble, which is especially prevalent with SGA’s ability to get to the foul line. It also allows them more opportunities for a player or two to get hot. Examples from the ECF were Nesmith and Mathurin. While not every player is meant to contribute through scoring, each player serves their own role when they’re on the court. While the Pacers will stick with their Starting 5 (Haliburton, Nembhard, Nesmith, Siakam, and Turner) in most end of game scenarios, the depth of this team allows for a plethora of lineup flexibility. Oklahoma City’s lineup is also deep, so the ability to create favorable matchups could provide the advantage the Pacers need.
Playoff Stat Leaders
Points Pascal Siakam 21.1 PPG
Rebounds: Pascal Siakam 5.8 RPG
Assists: Tyrese Haliburton 9.8 APG
Steals: Andrew Nembhard 1.6 SPG
Blocks: Myles Turner 2.3 BPG
Without a doubt, the favorite in this series is the Oklahoma City Thunder. As they dominated in the regular and post seasons, there is no reason to believe it won’t continue into the 2025 NBA Finals. On the other hand, the Pacers are looking to shock the basketball world like they’ve been doing all playoffs long. There has been a lot of talk about the NBA being disappointed with this matchup. First off, you’re not a real basketball fan if this is your take. Secondly, the NBA should be thrilled with this matchup. They have two young, rising stars battling against each other. Shai just won MVP and Haliburton is proving that he will be a force in a weakened Eastern Conference for years to come. I’m really intrigued to see how the aggressiveness and ability to force turnovers for OKC’s defense will matchup with the fast pace offense of Indiana. The Pacers will need Siakam, Haliburton, and one of Turner/Nembhard/Nesmith to play their best basketball to date offensively. The Thunder will test them with their lock down defender, necessitating stronger offensive output from multiple parties. Indiana is suited for this defense as they excel at playing turnover free basketball. Ultimately, I think the Thunder is too talented and will be able to pull away without much stress. A sweep would surprise me and I expect Haliburton to pull out a win late in one of these games. I just don’t believe they’ll be able to handle SGA and this OKC team full of DAWGS. At the risk of doubting this Pacers squad yet again, I believe Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will pull this off and launch himself into true superstardom.
Prediction: Thunder in 5