2025 NBA Playoffs: Round 1 Preview and Predictions
East
Cavaliers vs. Heat
The Cleveland Cavaliers entered the season as the first seed in the East and dominated the regular season. Donovan Mitchell is their go-to scorer, but this team gets the job done by committee. Darius Garland and Evan Mobley have made jumps this season that propelled their improvement. Mobley’s vast improvement as an outside shooter has helped the Cavs space the floor, leading Cleveland to the #1 ranked offense in the league. This is not the Miami Heat team that we’ve grown accustomed to over the past several years. Their defense remains Top 10 and there are still a plethora of experienced players that can keep them in games against more talented teams. The best thing about the 2025 Miami Heat is the improvement of Tyler Herro. With Jimmy Butler gone, the offense goes more through him and he’s taken full advantage of the opportunity. Bam Adebayo anchoring the defense and Herro anchoring the offense makes this a team Cleveland can’t overlook.
Cavaliers X-Factor: Bench Scoring
Heat X-Factor: Tyler Herro
As stated above, the shooting of Mobley has allowed for a more seamless offensive fit with fellow big man Jarrett Allen. Mobley’s biggest strength is his defensive versatility that few players in the NBA possess. His shooting and defense will be key as the Cavaliers look to make a deep playoff run this year. The biggest X-Factor for Cleveland is their bench scoring. Just when you think this Cavs team couldn’t get any tougher the emergence of Ty Jerome and trade for Deandre Hunter adds more scoring options to an already potent offense. Some teams face a scoring lull when their starters go to the bench, but Cleveland’s bench scoring makes it so they don’t skip a beat. Miami’s offensive problems lie in Bam’s inconsistency and a lack of other scoring options. Andrew Wiggins provides a two way championship experienced player, but he’s proven over the year’s he isn’t a go-to option. It’s odd to call a team’s leading scorer their X-Factor. Unfortunately for Miami, I believe their only hope is for Herro to go nuclear several times throughout the series. We saw him do it against Chicago in the Play-In Tournament, where he didn’t miss in the first half. However, I find that unlikely. The Heat and their “Heat Culture” will help them steal a game, but I think Cleveland wins this one without having to sweat it out much.
Prediction: Cavaliers in 5
Celtics vs. Magic
The Boston Celtics once again cruised through the regular season and found themselves winning 60+ games for the second consecutive season. Boston is defending it’s title from last year and had all their key contributors return from last season. Under head coach Joe Mazulla this offense launches threes at both a starting rate and efficiency. The offensive fire power this team provides is only matched by their elite team defense. During the regular season the Celtics were 2nd in offensive rating and 4th in defensive rating. Orlando is coming in off a dominant Play-In victory against Atlanta and playing some great basketball winning 7 of their last 10 regular season games. It hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows for this team throughout the season though. Both Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner missed significant time with oblique injuries while Jalen Suggs missing the remainder of the season. Orlando persevered and now finds themselves in the 7 seed.
Celtics X-Factor: Bench Scoring
Magic X-Factor: Three Point Shooting
The Celtics are led by one of the best starting 5’s in recent memory, it’s the bench that really puts this Celtics squad over the top. Don’t get me wrong, that starting 5 is enough to compete for a title. However, Al Horford, Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser fit their roles perfectly and give the Celtics a boost off the bench. The Celtics honestly have 6 players that should, realistically, go for 25+ on any given night, which makes them a tough out for anyone. I hate to oversimply but it’s very accurate with this season’s Magic. They cause troubles for opposing offenses with their pesky defense but struggle just as much to score the ball themselves. Unfortunately for Magic fans, the numbers and eye test back this up. Orlando is the 2nd in defensive rating and an abysmal 27th in offensive rating. To add insult to injury they also are dead last in three point percentage and 3 pointers made per season. The Magic will need that 3 point shooting to increase to pull off an upset. When Banchero and company get those 3’s to fall, they’re a completely different team. They will have the chance to steal one, but the talent and force of the Celtics will ultimately be too much for the young Magic.
Prediction: Celtics in 5
Knicks vs. Pistons
This has the chance to be one of the most exciting series of the First Round. On one hand there is the talented, hard-nosed New York Knicks and on the other is a young, scrappy Pistons team. This is set up to be a testy series that could result in one of those chippy series that we all love to watch. The Knicks have the edge on paper with playoff experience and pure talent. Jalen Brunson will likely be the best player in this series and looks to lead the Knicks on another deep playoff run. Detroit is a team that is a lot of fun to watch - Cade Cunningham is blossoming into a star right in front of our eyes. While he’s not a star, Isaiah “Beef” Stewart is a player straight out of the bad boy Pistons era that makes any game fun to watch. They are the 10th rated defensive team to go along with a middle of the pack offensive unit. Malik Beasley has been a revelation in Detroit averaging 16.3 points while shooting 41% from 3 on 9 attempts per game. This team is not afraid to mix it up with other teams, regardless of the star power that team possesses. As I stated earlier, the Knicks are the better team on paper but this Piston team won’t back down from anyone.
Knicks X-Factor: Health
Pistons X-Factor: Scoring outside of Cade Cunningham
New York can beat you in a variety of ways with Jalen Brunson, KAT, and Mikal Bridges all capable of being the focal point of the offense on any given night. Bridges struggled to start the season, but has found more of a rhythm as the season progressed. Players like PJ Tucker, Deuce McBride, OG Anunoby, and everyone’s favorite Josh Hart will need to thrive in their roles like we’ve seen in past seasons. With all that said, the key for them will be health. We saw last season, and with previous Tom Thibodeau-coached teams, that injuries in the playoffs unfortunately happen too frequently. Given that Thibs likes to play a smaller amount of players big minutes, health will be imperative to success for New York. Detroit comes in young and hungry entering their first playoffs since 2019. The problem for them is that they are likely without Jaden Ivey, their second highest scorer, for this series. To beat this Knicks team, they’ll need to get improved scoring from one of Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley, or Tim Hardaway Jr. We’ve seen these three play in the playoff before with mixed success. Ultimately, I think this is a classic scenario of a team not being ready for the moment yet. It’s a year too soon for this Pistons team but it’ll be great experience for Cunningham and this young team. They might steal a game or two, but this Knicks team is too dynamic on both ends of the court. If they stay healthy, they’ll be a handful in this series and moving forward.
Prediction: Knicks in 6
Pacers vs. Bucks
This series is one of the most intriguing of the first round. Will the better team win or will the opposition of the best player deliver his team to victory? The Indiana Pacers flew under the radar this year led by the duo of Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam. They boast a top 10 offense and a middle of the pack defense which is a huge plus. Most teams wouldn’t brag about a middle of the pack defense, but compared to last season that’s huge for Indiana. Haliburton and company play at a fast pace trying to speed other teams up outside their comfort level. Milwaukee is at a point this season where all their hopes rely on Giannis Antetokounmpo being dominant. With Damian Lillard likely missing the first game or more of this series, the Bucks are relying even more heavily on Giannis. Milwaukee does not have a lot of scoring options outside of Giannis when Dame is out. Players like Lopez, Kuzma, and Bobby Portis are capable scorers but haven’t been consistent this season. To add even more intrigue to this series, it is a rematch of the first round from last season. Granted, Giannis was hurt for a majority of that series, but these two teams do not like each other.
Pacers X-Factor: Fast Break Scoring
Bucks X-Factor: Damian Lillard
The Pacers have a big boost this playoffs having Benedict Mathurin healthy. Whether coming off the bench or starting, Mathurin provides a third scoring threat to this Pacer offense. If Mathurin can provide that scoring spark, that alleviates pressure off of Tyrese Haliburton. In the past 2 season we’ve seen 2 iterations of Haliburton. The star point guard’s passing is always there, his shooting has just been relatively inconsistent. When he’s hitting shots, this offense becomes nearly unstoppable. Indiana’s key to victory is playing with pace and speeding up a much older Bucks team that isn’t as interested in running in transition. It sounds really weird to call Damian Lillard an X-Factor, but his return could potentially sway this series. An additional point is the uncertainty regarding Lillard’s level of play when he returns in Game 2 or Game 3. It would be crazy to assume he’ll play at the same level in his first game back from blood clots. If he can even return to 85% of himself, it would be a huge get for Milwaukee. Trying to decide on this series is tough as I could easily go either way. I think Giannis will play MVP caliber basketball in this series and look to remind the world how great he is. Despite this, I think Indiana will pull away and win this series. The Pacers play great team basketball and will be able to survive an off night for Haliburton, while I don’t think the Bucks could do the same if Giannis has an off night.
Prediction: Pacers in 7
West
Thunder vs. Grizzlies
There’s been a lot of arguing across sports media about the Thunder being underappreciated this season. I’ll tell you what can’t be argued, the Thunder were the best team of the regular season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander spearheaded this Thunder team to a 68 win season. Despite the whopping 32.7 points averaged by SGA this season, the bread and butter for the Thunder came on the defensive end of the floor. They were the #1 ranked offense this season while also being the third rated defense. The trade this offseason for Alex Caruso only cemented the defensive prowess of OKC. The Grizzlies are an interesting team. They won 48 games but struggled down the stretch landing them in the Play-In Tournament. Memphis lost closely to Golden State and then dominated the Kings to land themselves in the 8 spot. They have the Stars (Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr, and Desmond Bane) to win games against better teams, but they’ll need those three to perform at their peak to win.
Thunder X-Factor: Jalen Williams
Grizzlies X-Factor: Rebounding
While the 1 versus 8 matchup is often dominated by the first seed, the Thunder will not be overlooking the Grizzlies. Memphis is talented but this young OKC team will also be chomping at the bit to make a name for themselves this postseason. To do so, they’ll need to avoid the pit fall of last year’s series against Dallas. The league knows SGA will get his points, but other players will need to help provide secondary scoring options for the Thunder to truly dominate. Jalen Williams is likely that guy and I think he’ll be able to alleviate some pressure off Shai. The Grizzlies can’t be overlooked by anyone, especially with Ja Morant playing the way he has recently and the big jump Triple J made this season. Memphis averaged the second most rebounds this season (47.3). They’ll struggle to score against the defense of the Thunder and will need to rely on second chance opportunities to steal some games in this series. The 3-8 seeds in the West were separated by just two games, so Memphis is not your average 8 seed. With that being said, this Oklahoma City team is just too talented. I believe they’ll cruise to victory without much issue.
Prediction: Thunder in 4
Rockets vs. Warriors
Looking for another series with some bad blood, look no further than Houston vs. Golden State. Outside of the series potentially becoming chippy there is a contrast of styles. Houston is a young athletic team with little playoff experience. In contrast, the Warriors are an older team with championship savvy on their side. The Rockets are another team that earn their living on the defensive end of the court. Offensively this unit is still progressing but a positive is they boast seven players that average double digit points. This allows them to survive potential off nights from some key contributors. Coach Ime Udoka will have his squad ready to play hard for 48 minutes. Golden State’s season completely changed with the midseason acquisition of Jimmy Butler. Since the All Star break the Warriors are the 7th rated offense and 1st rated defense. Jimmy’s ability to create takes pressure off Steph Curry and he also provides leadership to some of the younger Warrior players. He adds a true second creator/star to Golden State for the first time since the Kevin Durant era in Golden State. The two headed monster of Steph and Jimmy is enough to scare any team in the West.
Rockets X-Factor: 2 Big Lineup
Warriors X-Factor: Who is the 3rd scoring option?
At times this season, we’ve seen the Rockets run a two big lineup with Sengun and Steven Adams. This iteration of the Golden State warriors like to play small, so this Sengun/Adams combination could cause some serious issues for Golden State. Houston will unlikely be able to outshoot Golden State, but creating second chance opportunities could give Houston an advantage. I do question the Warriors ability to match up with this lineup. However, they can turn the tables on this and spread out this bigger Rockets team offensively. The true test for Golden State in these playoffs will be their third scoring options. At times this season that option was Jonathan Kuminga, but he seems to have fallen out of favor with the Golden State coaching staff. If things continue like this, the Warriors won’t be able to survive a potential off game from either Curry or Butler. This will likely be another close series, but I’m rolling with Golden State here. The Rockets are in the “year too soon” grouping and I really question how they’ll be able to close out games late. There will be close games where the edge goes to this tenured Warriors team.
Warriors in 7
Lakers vs. Timberwolves
This series features LeBron, Luka, and Anthony Edwards. Those are three of the biggest stars in today’s NBA all competing to advance to the Western Conference Semi-Finals. The Lakers season reached new heights after the shocking acquisition of Luka Doncic. That has given Los Angeles two big stars that excel at both creating their own shots and playmaking for others. While Luka is getting a lot of attention, Austin Reaves is flying under the radar. Averaging a career high 20.2 points and 5.8 assists, Reaves makes this Lakers’ offense nearly un-guardable. They are able to match up one of their three stars against your weakest defender and go to work. Minnesota represents a team that gets the job done on both sides of the floor. Despite question marks throughout the season, they finished as a top 10 offense in defense by seasons end. Anthony Edwards continues to flaunt his stardom. Ant was a dynamic athlete coming out of Georgia and now led the league in made threes on 39.5 percent from deep. The Wolves other plays also perfected their roles during last year’s playoffs. Both the Lakers and Timberwolves are experienced playoff teams and know what it takes to win.
Lakers X-Factor: Perimeter Defense
Timberwolves X-Factor: 3 Point Shooting
My prediction for this series was not easy to make. The Lakers are offensively a juggernaut at times and Luka is getting more dangerous as his comfort in Los Angeles grows. There is a major question on the interior for the Lakers as Jaxson Hayes is the only true 5 playing minutes, but they’re looking to play small. A pivotal point in this series will be whether Minnesota can punish the Lakers for playing small or if Los Angeles can get away without a true big man. The Lakers defense is also a question mark. Initially after the trade, they were surprisingly a top rated defense in the league. That eventually declined as the Lakers ended the season with the 17th rated defense. Their offensive trio will also need to make a concerted defensive effort to get the job done. A huge question mark for the Timberwolves in Julius Randle. Past playoff performances from the Minnesota star have left a lot to be desired. However when he isn’t a ball stopper and plays within the system, he takes a lot of pressure off Anthony Edwards. Minnesota can turn games quickly by creating turnovers and hitting 3’s. Outside of Rudy Gobert, every rotational player for Minnesota can knock down the three ball. In the end, I think Anthony Edwards takes another big leap and the Lakers won’t be able to stop the Timberwolves offense.
Prediction: Timberwolves in 6
Nuggets vs. Clippers
In 2023, the Denver Nuggets won the championship with a majority of the roster that is still there. The firing of Michael Malone changes some things, but we’re hoping it changes things for the better. As a reminder to the world, they still have Nikola Jokic who just became the third player to average a triple double in a season. Jokic is still the best player in the league and Christian Braun has taken a big leap in his third season. Braun is constantly moving without the ball, which is exactly what Jokic wants his teammates to do. The Nuggets are flying under the radar due to the front office/coaching changes, but can easily make some noise in this playoffs solely based on the play of their MVP candidate. Entering the season, the Clippers were without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard’s injury status was up in the air. Many people assumed they were simply punting on the season. Little did they know that Los Angeles would have the third rated defense and that Kawhi Leonard would begin returning to form before the seasons end. It also deserves mentioning that Norm Powell and Ivica Zubac are having career seasons. The playoffs is a completely different beast but there’s a chance the Clippers could be a true threat to Oklahoma City in this stacked Western conference.
Nuggets X-Factor: Playoff Jamaal Murray?
Clippers X-Factor: Playoff James Harden?
Denver offense is still potent, ranking fourth in the NBA, but their defense has been abysmal and ranks in the bottom third of the league. That will need to improve greatly in the playoffs or they’ll truly be relying on historic heroics by Nikola Jokic to win games. The play of Michael Porter Jr. and Jamaal Murray will be huge for Denver in this series and beyond. Jokic can draw in the defense as much as possible, but he needs shooters like Porter Jr. and Murray to convert those chances for it to matter. In the past we’ve seen Jamaal Murray really step up big in the playoffs. If he can do that again this season, the Nuggets become one of the most dangerous teams in the league. The Clippers have really shown out the past few months of the season and has me believing this team could truly make a run. The big pain point I run into is the recent playoff track record of Kawhi Leonard and the full playoff track record of James Harden. Both players are all-time greats, but Kawhi hasn’t managed to stay healthy for the playoffs in years and Harden seems to crumble under the playoff pressure. This is another series, where I seriously considered flipping a coin for my decision. Ultimately I’ve been burned too many times in the playoffs by those two for me to believe in these Clippers. I hope I’m wrong, but that mixed with the dominance of Jokic has me leaning Nuggets in this series. Look for some close games that the Nuggets star makes clutch plays down the stretch to win.
Nuggets in 7
We are in line for some elite level basketball. Those first two weekends of the NBA Playoffs where we get 4 games a day are truly underrated in the sports calendar. Out of the eight series that are on the schedule, not all of them will go 6 or 7 games. However, the ones that do become legendary. The First Round is also where we see players begin the climb towards a championship that could etch their legacy. The narratives entering these 2025 Playoffs are ones that could shape the historic landscape of the NBA for a long time. Is SGA ready to lead OKC to the title? Can Tatum and the Celtics repeats as champs? Does LeBron win ring #5? This and many other storylines are why I’ll be tuning in until that final buzzer goes off in early June. I’ll see you all back here for the conference Semi-Finals in a few weeks.