2025 CFP Semi-Final Preview
The College Football Playoff continues to not disappoint. We had Miami upset Ohio State in a game where the Hurricanes truly showed their dominance at the line of scrimmage. Miami has proved that they don’t only belong in this playoffs, that they have a real chance to win it all. Our Round 2 finale had Ole Miss against Georgia in an instant classic. Gunner Stockton and Trinidad Chambliss were both magicians out there, with Chamblisss having the final laugh. The other two games featured dominant performances by Indiana and Oregon, but that’s what good teams do. In the Semi-Finals, we get to see two exciting matchups to determine who gets to the National Championship. In even more exciting news, we’ll get a National Champion that hasn’t won since at least 2001. Let’s see how we’ve faired with our predictions so far and get into the game previews.
Round 1: 3-1
Round 2: 2-2
Miami vs. Ole Miss
Miami
Best Players: Carson Beck, Malachi Toney, Mark Fletcher Jr., Rueben Bain Jr., Akheem Mesidor
Best Wins: vs. Notre Dame, @ Pitt, @ Texas A&M, vs. Ohio State
Losses: vs. Louisville, @ SMU
Ole Miss
Best Players: Trinidad Chambliss, Kewan Lacy, Harrison Wallace III, Suntarine Perkins, Will Echoles
Best Wins: vs. LSU, @ Oklahoma, vs. Tulane x2, vs. Georgia
Losses: @ Georgia
Game Analysis
Through two rounds of the CFP, I have picked against the Miami Hurricanes in each round. After struggling through the middle of their ACC season, Miami has been on an absolute heater. After winning an ugly game against Texas A&M, they imposed their will against Ohio State. I thought the Buckeyes had one of the best chances to win the entire thing and would cruise against the Hurricanes. Miami shocked most of the sports world and lead the entire way on NYE. The blueprint was simple and Miami executed it flawlessly. They played elite defense and opportunistic offense. On defense the duo of Bain Jr. and Mesidor was nearly unstoppable and prevented the Buckeye offense from being comfortable. On the back end, the defense played downhill and with no regard for human life. When Sayin had the opportunity to throw it down field, the Miami safeties eliminated any run after catch possibility. On offense, they took advantages of opportunities presented by the Buckeye defense and really leaned on Mark Fletcher Jr. yet again. In the semi-final, Miami will lean on Fletcher and look for Carson Beck to make big plays when the opportunity presents itself.
In what I find one of the weirder stats of this postseason, this is the Rebels first matchup that isn’t a rematch from prior in the season. After beating Tulane for the second time and getting revenge on fellow SEC member Georgia, they now match up with the Miami Hurricanes. Before we look forward, we have to recognize that Georgia vs. Ole Miss was an instant classic. Many people overlooked the Rebels and thought Georgia would make a run towards yet another National Title. Trinidad Chambliss had other ideas as he threw for 362 yards and 2 touchdowns. The former Division II transfer performed his best Houdini impression several times during the game, allowing Harrison Wallace and De’Zhaun Stribling to get open for clutch plays down the field. Their defense was not elite but held the Bulldogs to a field goal late in the game when it mattered most. The defense will need to bow up against the run if they want to continue this incredible 2025/2026 season. The offense will also need to continue this dominant stretch. I don’t believe the Rebels can win a 17-13 rock fight, they’ll need the Chambliss/ Lacy duo to continue this magical run.
Both of these teams were not expected to be in the Semi-Finals by CFB experts and biasedly unbiased individuals like myself. That, however, is why we watch the games and love this crazy sport. Both these teams have had tremendous seasons and valid arguments as to why they’ll win the matchup on Thursday. For Miami, they arguably have the best win of the entire playoff against Ohio State. The Hurricanes have been the more physical team in both their wins. Both offensively and defensively they have been dominant at the line of scrimmage which always gives you a chance to win. For Ole Miss, this offense has been absolutely dominant in this postseason. They go up against arguably their toughest test against the Hurricanes, but I think they’ll be able to continue their excellence on offense. The key for the Rebels will be their play in the trenches. Competing in the trenches will get Lacy and the play action game going on offense while making Miami rely more on the pass when the Rebels are on defense. I want to ride the wave that is the Ole Miss rebels, but I’m going to roll with the Miami Hurricanes here. I think the Rebels will put up a fight but the dominance by the offensive and defensive lines for Miami is almost impossible to go against. In these playoffs, the more physical teams have won and I’m relying on that trend again on Thursday.
Prediction: Miami 31 Ole Miss 27
Oregon vs. Indiana
Oregon
Best Players: Dante Moore, Noah Whittington, Kenyon Sadiq, Bryce Boettcher, Matayo Uiagalelei, Brandon Finney Jr.
Best Wins: @ Penn State, vs. USC, vs. James Madison, vs. Texas Tech
Losses: vs. Indiana
Indiana
Best Players: Fernando Mendoza, Roman Hemby, Omar Cooper Jr., Rolijah Hardy, Louis Moore, D’Angelo Ponds
Best Wins: vs Illinois, @ Oregon, vs. Ohio State, vs. Alabama
Losses: None
Game Analysis
The Oregon Ducks had an assertive victory against the Big 12 champion, Texas Tech Red Raiders. Their dominance included the first shutout of the 12 team playoff. Statistically, they ended up holding Texas Tech to just 215 yards of total offense with 4 sacks, 7 TFLs, 2 forced fumbles, and 2 interceptions. Texas Tech’s big question mark was on offensive but shutting them out in a playoff game is still an incredible feat. A ton of praise deserves to be thrown towards Brandon Finney Jr. who had two picks and a fumble recovery as a true freshman. On offense, the Ducks took advantage of a short field against one of the best defenses in the country. Dante Moore didn’t have his best game and missed a couple opportunities, but he avoided any game changing mistakes as Oregon never really had to sweat this one out. If the Ducks hope to get revenge against the Hoosiers on Friday, they’ll need to keep that defensive performance at an elite level. The key will be converting those opportunities in to touchdowns as opposed to settling for field goals like they did against Texas Tech.
The Indiana Hoosiers were the only team to win coming off a Round 1 bye. They absolutely demolished the Crimson Tide in a 38-3 beat down at the Rose Bowl. There is so much that can and should be said about the job Curt Cignetti has done at Indiana. As I said in the last preview, at any other point in college football history Alabama is on a different level compared to Indiana. The matchup would have been a Week 2 non-conference game where Alabama plays their backups for a majority of the first half. Those teams weren’t built in the trenches and lead by a Heisman winner though. In all my time of watching football I have never seen anyone dismantle an Alabama team like that. Fernando Mendoza balled out per usual and the Hoosiers ran for over 200 yards. However, the most impressive part of this game was the defensive effort by Indiana. They held the Alabama Crimson Tide to 23 yards rushing and just 193 total yards for the game. To repeat this performance against Oregon, Mendoza and company will look to protect the ball and control the pace of this game.
This game was already played earlier in the season as Indiana beat Oregon 30-20 in Eugene. In that game, the Hoosiers intercepted Dante Moore twice and stifled the Oregon rushing attack. For the Ducks, they’ll need to create opportunities to establish the run and most importantly protect the football. Indiana is a methodical offense that thrives at controlling the clock. If Dante Moore gives this offense a short field, they’re almost certain to take advantage of it. The biggest play of that game for Oregon was a pick six by star Brandon Finney Jr. If the Ducks can win the turnover battle, they’ll have a great shot to win. Is it boring for me to say Indiana’s key to victory is to keep doing what they’re doing? Because honestly that’s the message here. Indiana has won 14 games this season by protecting the football, dominating at both lines of scrimmage, and relying on Fernando Mendoza to make big plays in the clutch. Ultimately, I haven’t seen anything from Indiana that makes me think they won’t continue to win. I love watching Dante Moore spread the ball to Kenyon Sadiq and his other weapons, but I believe Indiana will make them one dimensional. I’m pumped for this game and believe Oregon can keep it close, but Mendoza will make clutch plays in the fourth quarter as the Hoosiers pull away.
Prediction: Indiana 27 Oregon 20
We truly have two great games on Thursday and Friday of this week. It’s refreshing to have teams that don’t have recent playoff success to be battling for a National Championship. While I am picking Miami and Indiana, there is very much a world where we see one or both of Ole Miss and Oregon pull off upsets. These two games will have something for every type of true football fan. We’ll see dominant offensive lines, future NFL stars, quarterbacks making jaw-dropping plays, and everything in between. Make sure to be locked in for these games as we only have 3 more games of the college football season. Enjoy and see you all back here before the National Championship