2025 CFP Round 1 Preview
I’ll start off with the elephant in the room, no Alabama pun intended. I don’t think the Crimson Tide should be in the CFP. To be fair, I also don’t think Miami should be in over Notre Dame. The game between the two happened in August during CJ Carr’s first start and was a one possession game. From that point on, Miami controlled their own destiny but ended up losing to two middling ACC teams. However, while I don’t agree with the Miami/Notre Dame head to head argument, I at least understand the reasoning behind it. For Alabama to get throttled by Georgia and not drop a single spot in the rankings is absolutely absurd to me. In my eyes the correct seeding would have been: Notre Dame at 9, Miami at 10, and Alabama watching the playoffs from home. At the end of the day, I also think none of these teams in the bubble have any room to complain. Just a few years ago if you lost one game you were eliminated from the 4-team playoff. I just don’t agree with the process of moving teams around between weeks with no set reason. Bottom line though, win your games and don’t leave it up to the committee.
Thank you for listening to my mini-rant. My disappointment in the decision by the committee has done nothing to dispel my excitement for the second year of these expanded playoffs. I enjoyed last years tremendously and this year the pool of quality teams is even deeper. I love that Ohio State gets to defend their title and teams like Oregon, Georgia, and Indiana get a shot at redemption after falling short last year. On the other hand, having 8 new teams this year is incredibly exciting. We have four new sites hosting first round games as we get a glimpse of incomparable college football atmospheres mixed with playoff intensity. While there are 4 high-powered teams that have first round byes, don’t forget Ohio State hosted a first round game last year and ran through four rounds to a National Championship.
Alabama @ Oklahoma
Alabama
Best Players: Ty Simpson, Germie Bernard, Ryan Williams, Deontae Lawson, and Bray Hubbard
Best Wins: @ Georgia, vs. Tennessee
Losses: @Florida State, vs Oklahoma, vs. Georgia
Oklahoma
Best Players: John Mateer, Isaiah Sategna III, R Mason Thomas, Peyton Bowen, Kip Lewis
Best Wins: vs Michigan, @Tennessee, @Alabama
Losses: vs. Texas, vs. Ole Miss
Game Analysis
I already stated my feelings about Alabama being in the playoffs. After suffering their third loss to Georgia in demoralizing fashion, the Crimson Tide should have been on the outside looking in. With that being said, Alabama has punched their ticket and have a rematch against the Oklahoma Sooners. The 2026 campaign in Tuscaloosa was filled with ups and downs, but this team now has the opportunity to achieve the ultimate goal. They are still trying to find their identity under second year head coach Kalen DeBoer. This team has some great players on defense, but isn’t as stifling as the Bama defenses of the Saban era. Where this team really separates themselves is throwing the football. Boasting a trio of Germie Bernard, Ryan Williams, and Isaiah Horton, this team puts pressure on opposing defenses in coverage. Mix that in with the emergence of Ty Simpson, and the Alabama passing attack is a real problem. The Achilles Heel for this offense is that they often become predictable. Running back Jam Miller has the ability to be a real difference maker in the run game, but that unfortunately hasn’t been the case this year. Against an elite Oklahoma defense, Alabama will need to establish some form of rushing attack to prevent losing to the Sooners for the third straight game.
Oklahoma has done a complete 180 since Lincoln Riley left and Brent Venables took over. This team is now built on the defensive side of the ball and has one of the best defenses in the county to prove it. Playing in the daunting SEC and allowing 9th lowest yards per game is something to admire. The front seven for this defense is nasty and allows only 81.4 rushing yards per game, which is the 5th best in the country. Oklahoma makes you earn every yard against them, which is why they win games while their offense struggles. Speaking of that offense, quarterback John Mateer needs to return to his early season form for the Sooners to make a deep run in this playoff. After his thumb surgery, combined with an increase in competition, he has really struggled. At his peak, Mateer is a dynamic, physical runner that makes defenses pay when you load the box against him. The Sooners have a talented group of pass catchers to match Alabama, with Isaiah Sategna III, Deion Burks, and Jared Kanak. Sategna is one of the most explosive receivers in all of college football and can truly change any game with the ball in his hands. Finally, don’t forget about Sooners’ kicker Tate Sandell is one of the most accurate kickers in the country, if this game goes down to the wire.
Friendly reminder that Oklahoma won this matchup 23-21 in Tuscaloosa just over a month ago. Taking a look back at this game, the key difference was the turnover margin. Alabama turned the ball over 3 times, including an 87 yard pick six by Eli Bowen, while Oklahoma played turnover-free football. If the Crimson Tide were to take away those turnovers, it could have been a completely different game. I think the turnover margin will once again play a huge part in the game on Friday. Another key battle will be the Alabama offensive line/ running backs against the Oklahoma front seven. As previously stated, this Sooner run defense is physical and stout. If they can make Alabama one dimensional, it will play right into their hands again. I would love to pick Oklahoma here, but the way Mateer has been playing does not give me a ton of confidence. I think Alabama comes in motivated after the loss earlier in the season and the return of Jam Miller provides a spark to keep their offense balanced. Oklahoma’s elite defense will keep it close, but I think Alabama comes through in the end.
Prediction: Alabama 21 Oklahoma 13
Miami @ Texas A&M
Miami
Best Players: Carson Beck, Malachi Toney, Francis Mauigoa, Rueben Bain Jr., Akheem Mesidor
Best Wins: vs. Notre Dame, vs. South Florida, @ Pitt
Losses: vs. Louisville, @ SMU
Texas A&M
Best Players: Marcel Reed, KC Concepcion, Mario Craver, Cashius Howell, Taurean York
Best Wins: @ Notre Dame, @ LSU, @ Missouri
Losses: @ Texas
Game Analysis
Miami’s season has really been a tale of two teams. The “good” Miami is balanced offensively and makes life miserable for opposing offenses. This is the team that beat Notre Dame the opening week of the season and won 8 other games by double figures. The “bad” Miami lost to SMU and Louisville while also letting a disappointing Florida State team hang around for too long. In these games, Carson Beck struggled and threw 6 of his 10 interceptions of the season in those two games. When Beck plays like the veteran quarterback that he is and gets the ball to Malachi Toney and others, Miami is a very hard team to beat. The Hurricanes have a massive offensive line that allows Mark Fletcher to dominate running the ball. On the defensive end, the combination of Mesidor and Bain rushing the passer is a nightmare for opposing offenses to gameplan for. When Miami plays turnover free football and their defensive line plays to their potential, they’re hard to stop.
The haters will say that the Aggies were beneficiaries of a weak SEC conference schedule. While it’s true that A&M avoided playing powerhouses like Georgia and Alabama, you play who’s on your schedule. The Aggies also went out of their way to schedule a game in South Bend against Notre Dame, so give them credit for that. This team has one of the most exciting offenses in the country lead by quarterback Marcel Reed. Reed is a dual threat quarterback whose ability to extend plays allows receivers KC Concepcion and Mario Craver to get open for big plays downfield. Both players are dynamic with the ball in their hands and form what is probably the second best receiver tandem, only behind Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The Aggies boast a bounty of riches with a backfield that features four running backs (Owens, Moss, Daniels, and Smith) that have come up big during different points of the season. On defense, A&M is talented but at times inconsistent. Cashius Howell is one of the most disruptive pass rusher we have in today’s game. When you pair that with a lockdown corner in Will Lee and a defensive mind like Taurean York at linebacker, that should form a great defense. At times we’ve seen this group flash, however it’s just been too inconsistent in total.
This might be the game I’m most excited for in the first round. Between the Aggies and the Hurricanes, there is no shortage of talent or guys we’ll soon see playing on Sundays. Miami will need to see what Texas did defensively to A&M. They were stingy against the Aggies rushing attack and took away easy throws, forcing Reed to be a true passer. I believe in Marcel Reed but that isn’t where he excels. On offense, Beck will need to take care of the football. Miami has great weapons, their quarterback just needs to do his part. The Aggies need their defense to show up like they did for a majority of the season. If Howell can make Beck uncomfortable, that could force him to turn the ball over. I keep going back and forth with this game. If it was a night game in College Station, my decision would be much easier. Still, I think the Aggies pull this one out. This offense has too much going on and I believe one of their defensive stars makes a game changing play to swing momentum towards the home team.
Prediction: Texas A&M 31 Miami 27
Tulane @ Ole Miss
Tulane
Best Players: Jake Retzlaff, Shazz Preston, Harvey Dyson, Jahiem Johnson
Best Wins: vs. Duke, @ Memphis, vs. North Texas
Losses: @ Ole Miss, @ UTSA
Ole Miss
Best Players: Trinidad Chambliss, Kewan Lacy, Harrison Wallace III, Suntarine Perkins, Will Echoles
Best Wins: vs. Tulane, vs. LSU, @ Oklahoma
Losses: @ Georgia
Game Analysis
This Tulane team finds themselves in a rematch against Ole Miss. They lost this game in September 45-10. One bright spot has been the growing comfortability in quarterback Jake Retzlaff. After transferring late in the season, it took time for the the former BYU Cougar to develop in the passing game for Tulane. Offensively, Tulane’s best chance will be to establish the run game. The Green Wave have been operating most efficiently in the passing game, but using Retzlaff’s legs will be key if they want to stay in this game. When they do throw the ball get the ball to Shazz Preston as often as you can. Preston has been Tulane’s most explosive playmaker. Defensively, as the underdogs, Tulane will need to create negative plays. Their defense has been great at creating turnovers and sacking opposing quarterbacks, which will need to continue on Saturday.
The talking point everyone wants to talk about regarding Ole Miss is life after Lane Kiffin. I don’t want to focus on that, instead I want to focus on the quality of this Rebels team. The combination of Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy are flying under the radar. Chambliss is one of the best stories in the entire sport. He was a transfer at Division II Ferris State, has thrown for 300+ yards in 7 games, and is now playing in the college football playoff. His running mate, Kewan Lacy, is somehow flying under the radar despite having 1,279 yards and 20 touchdowns. Outside of Lacy, Chambliss does a great job of spreading the ball around to a plethora of talented pass catchers. On defense, Ole Miss has some talented players like Echoles, Perkins, and Umanmielen. As a unit, they just aren’t as consistent as you’d like. They’ll need to impose their will against a smaller school in Tulane to prevent this game from getting close.
Ole Miss is heavily favored here and rightfully so. I truly believe this game will come down to the Rebels taking care of business. Their is a massive talent gap between this powerhouse from the SEC and the frisky champions from the AAC. For Tulane, Retzlaff is a true difference maker that has experience playing against Power 4 competition. If he can play turnover free football and perform as a true dual threat quarterback, the Green Wave will have a fighting chance. Ole Miss is an offense that operates without a true weakness and they also possess a handful of defensive players that are likely better than anyone Tulane has played in months. I would love to see a close game, but I think the Rebels dominate with a result similar to the game in September.
Prediction: Ole Miss 34 Tulane 10
James Madison @ Oregon
James Madison
Best Players: Alonza Barnett III, Wayne Knight, Trent Hendrick, Sahir West, Justin Eaglin
Best Wins: vs. Old Dominion, vs. Washington State, vs. Troy
Losses: @Louisville
Oregon
Best Players: Dante Moore, Noah Whittington, Kenyon Sadiq, Bryce Boettcher, Matayo Uiagalelei
Best Wins: @ Penn State, @ Iowa, vs. USC
Losses: vs. Indiana
Game Analysis
James Madison getting into the CFP is another controversy that could likely be changed in years to come. The Dukes got in as the 5th highest ranked conference champion and second from a non-power conference. With that being said, I like this James Madison team. They play an extremely physical, gritty brand of football that is becoming rarer in today’s game. On offense they are very run with Alonza Barnett III and Wayne Knight, not the actor that plays Newman in Seinfeld, combine to form one of the nation’s most dominant rushing attacks. Barnett uses his rushing ability to his advantage as it has created open passing lanes. This Oregon offense will be the best that the Dukes have played all season, but this defense has been great. James Madison has playmakers at all three levels of their defense. The play of this defense has allowed their offense to be so dominant running the football. They have only allowed 24+ points twice this season and look to be stingy again when they play Oregon.
I first off, want to highlight the complete culture change we’ve seen from Oregon since the Chip Kelly era. They still do have an exciting offense but their defense under Dan Lanning has greatly improved. This is no longer an Oregon team that needs to score 35-40+ to stay in games. On offense, Dante Moore is one of the most accurate passers in the country and has lead this Oregon offense to yet another prolific season. For the Ducks, they have had injuries happen to their pass catchers throughout the season. It will be nice for this team to finally have that group healthier with the season on the line. Moore accuracy can partially be contributed to the fact that he can spread the ball around to several talented pass catchers. On defense, I love the front seven for Oregon which can put pressure on opposing quarterbacks and make teams one dimensional. Look for the Ducks to force James Madison to be a passer in this game.
This is another game that I think comes down to the talent gap between the Ducks and the Dukes. For James Madison to have a chance, they’ll need to muddy up this game. That means creating turnovers, long possessions on offense, and forcing punts and field goals when on defense. That is how James Madison is built, but like I said before, the Dukes have not played a team with the speed, strength, and pure talent like Oregon. For the Ducks, expect them to impose their will early to eliminate all hope for their opponent. They won’t look to reinvent the wheel but the Ducks will get players like Sadiq, Benson, and Whittington in space early. If this game stays close, the Dukes might have a chance. However, I think the Ducks take care of business here.
Prediction: Oregon 45 James Madison 13